What’s happening with Tony Finau?
Tony Finau has captured the hearts of golf enthusiasts for almost ten years, and his journey began even earlier when he finished as a runner-up on Big Break Disney Golf back in 2009. Afterward, he spent several years honing his skills on various mini-tours before making a significant impact on the PGA Tour.
He made headlines in 2016 with his victory at the Puerto Rico Open, followed by qualifying for the Tour Championship in 2017. By 2018, he had established himself as one of the premier players in the sport, achieving an impressive record of ten top-10 finishes in major championships by 2021, including three remarkable finishes in 2018 alone.
Finau's winning streak continued, as he secured five titles from 2021 to 2023. However, what initially seemed like a promising career trajectory has hit a rough patch. After finishing in the top 10 in half of his first 20 major appearances, his performance has waned significantly, with only one top-10 finish in his last 18 tries. He consistently ended the year within the top 20 of the world rankings from 2018 to 2023 but saw his ranking drop to 26th at the close of 2024. Now, as we look ahead to 2025, he risks falling just inside the top 100, raising doubts about his prospects in upcoming major tournaments. This year, Finau achieved only one top-10 finish in 21 events, placing T5 at Riviera in February.
So, what has led to this sudden decline for one of golf's most charismatic and entertaining figures? Let's delve deeper.
Finau’s putting is not the key issue.
It’s easy to assume that Finau’s struggles on the greens are the root of his problems, especially given that he often seems to falter on short putts during crucial moments. In an effort to address this, he experimented with the notorious pencil grip and even attempted a one-handed birdie putt at the Memorial Tournament.
However, the challenges with his putting are not the primary reason for Finau's recent downturn. He has historically struggled with short putts, consistently ranking outside the top 140 on the PGA Tour in putting from within five feet for five consecutive seasons, managing to break into the top 90 only once in his career. Despite these shortcomings, he has still managed to be a top competitor.
When we analyze his Strokes Gained: Putting statistics, the trends show consistency. Finau ranked 124th on Tour this year, 156th last year, and 125th in 2023. His highest ranking came in 2018, where he placed 53rd, followed by 69th in 2020. This clearly indicates that, even at his peak, Finau was merely an average putter at best.
A noticeable drop in his iron play.
A significant factor contributing to Finau’s struggles this year is his performance with iron shots. Since 2017, he never finished worse than 39th in Strokes Gained: Approach until experiencing a staggering fall to 135th this season. Just last year, he was second only to Scottie Scheffler in this category and ranked fifth in 2023 and twelfth in 2022. This drastic decline raises eyebrows, but it’s too early to panic.
It's not uncommon for players to experience fluctuations in their iron game during transitional periods. Finau has maintained a solid iron game for nearly a decade, so I believe he has the potential to bounce back.
While addressing the issues with his irons is crucial, I suspect that a different aspect of his game is at the core of his current difficulties.
Finau’s driving game is no longer a strong point.
One of the standout features of Finau's rise in professional golf was his impressive driving ability. His exceptional athleticism allowed him to achieve remarkable distances off the tee, ranking third in driving distance in 2016, tenth in 2017, fourth in 2018, ninth in 2019, and thirteenth in 2020.
However, this trend has taken a downturn. Finau has not placed in the top 30 in driving distance since 2020, finishing at a career-low of 73rd last year.
To compound the issue, his accuracy has not shown signs of improvement either. While his lack of accuracy off the tee wasn't alarming when he was hitting the ball far, it becomes a concern when both distance and accuracy are lacking. This year, he ranked 141st in driving accuracy, leading to an overall ranking of 128th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee.
This marks eight consecutive years of decline in his SG: OTT ranking.
It's important to recognize that Finau is now 36 years old—a typical age for a Tour player—and he is recovering from left knee surgery in 2024. Throughout his career, he has relied heavily on his physical abilities. His swing is compact yet explosive, generating significant torque and clubhead speed in a quick motion. Given this data, it’s reasonable to suggest that Finau may be experiencing a decline in his physical prowess in recent years.
Can he make a comeback?
As Finau heads into 2026, he will face considerable pressure to maintain his position within the world’s top 100 and secure his eligibility for major championships. Another year post-surgery could potentially aid his recovery, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see his iron play improve, returning closer to his former levels. However, due to his evident struggles on the greens, Finau will need to enhance his accuracy off the tee sooner rather than later.
It’s clear that he has moved beyond his previous status as an elite long driver. If Finau hopes to remain competitive as he approaches his 40s, he must prioritize improving his accuracy off the tee to better support his iron game. Should his distance continue to diminish without an accompanying boost in accuracy, the pressure on his iron play will become unsustainable, making it increasingly difficult for him to compete with the best in the world.
